seth from somewhere

Photograph: Lalo R Villar/AP

LAST WEEK: 3/11
SEASON: 42/81 (52%)

Two fairly important things, school and work, bogged me down last week, leaving me with no time to write up a Quiniela post.  I did, however, make my picks and also added a new wrinkle.  My La Liga picks from Jornada 20 are on my Facebook profile but here’s a quick review.  Saturday started well as Espanyol (win vs. Athletic Bilbao) and Barcelona (win @ Sporting Gijón) helped the cause but again I underestimated Real Madrid.  They were without suspended talisman Cristiano Ronaldo and playing away to strong Deportivo La Coruña but Karim Benzema finally lived up in part to his large transfer fee, providing two goals in an impressive 3-1 away win to stay on pace with La Liga leaders Barça.  It was Madrid’s first win in La Coruña in 18 years.  Sunday was another story.  A correct pick in the Getafe-Racing Santander draw was the only one in the early games.  It all went down all after that and was comedic in the style of Atlético Madrid, finishing a forgettable 3 for 10 in La Liga.

The new wrinkle to this week’s Quiniela involves soccer from the South American continent.  Argentina’s Primera División started this past week and I am going to include one match each week in my Quiniela.  The league is split into two different seasons, the Apertura and Clasura (literally, Opening and Closing), with summer tournaments (it’s winter for us Northerners) held during the break between the Apertura and Clasura. The Argentine league is heavily titled towards the Buenos Aires clubs and one of them, Club Atlético Banfield, won their first ever championship in the 2009 Apertura.  El Taladro (The Drill) was featured on Fox Soccer Channel’s Argentine match of the week against another Buenos Aires club, legendary River Plate.  Los Millonarios ended the summer break on a high note, beating hated rivals Boca Juniors twice in a row.  I picked River Plate to continue that success into the first Clasura weekend and defeat Banfield at home.  However, Banfield proved their worth as champions and stole a 1-0 away victory.  Foresight shows that while River beat Boca twice, they had poor showings in their other summer tournament matches.

Let’s hope I can improve from a woeful 3 for 11.  On to the picks . . .

1 = home win; 2 = away win; X = draw

Valencia (3rd) v. Real Valladolid (17th)

PICK: 1

Valencia let me down last week as Sevilla was once again involved in busting my quiniela.  This week looks to be different even though Valladolid has a new manager.  The two Davids, Villa and Silva, are still with Valencia after yet another transfer window but it is very likely that one or both will leave the team in the summer.  Valencia will want to take advantage and put both players in position to help Valencia make a push towards the top two in La Liga.

Real Madrid (2nd) v. Espanyol (14th)

PICK: 1

Guti’s cheeky backheel to Benzema was the talk of La Liga this past week.  There were even calls for his inclusion in the Spanish squad for the 2010 World Cup despite a less than stellar performance in the second half against Deportivo.  I love how the color commentator mutters “no, no, no” after Guti’s bit of inspiration.  It was a perfect response to being completely taken by surprise – he couldn’t believe what his eyes had just seen or maybe he was insulted by the selfless arrogance (is that possible?) of Guti by passing up a clear goal-scoring chance to gamble on a career-defining move.

CR9 (Cristiano Ronaldo, as he is otherwise known) remains suspended for his elbow that broke the nose of Patrick Mtiliga.  However, Real Madrid will be focused on improving team form in anticipation of the upcoming Champions League matches.  They’re unbeaten at home and no one can realistically expect Espanyol to get anything out of this match.

Barcelona (1st) v. Getafe (7th)

PICK: 1

Barça is on a cruise control and the biggest news this week for los blaugranas is that Arsenal captain Cesc Fábregas has reiteriated his desire to eventually return to the club where he started his youth career.  Getafe is a solid club and could possibly pull a Villarreal and earn a draw in the Nou Camp but Barcelona will be looking to hone their craft, much like Real Madrid, with the Champions League close to resuming.

Mallorca (5th) v. Villarreal (9th)

PICK: 1

This is one of the tougher picks to make this week.  Mallorca has only lost once their home ground in the Mediterranean and that match was in the Copa del Rey.  Villarreal, on the other hand, produced one of the more surprising results of the year when they held Barcelona to a draw in the Nou Camp.  This is deceiving because the Yellow Submarine have a good history of playing in Barcelona and, outside of that result, they have been poor on the road.  Villarreal fired their manager after last Sunday’s home loss and the club is in heavy debt and reportedly struggling to even pay their players.  New manager Juan Carlos Garrido has a tough assignment in motivating his players in the face of financial instability and a trip to Mallorca’s fortress (which is surprising given the laid-back nature of Mallorca’s fans).  When in doubt go with the home win.

Almería (16th) v. Sporting Gijón (11th)

PICK: X

Almería has not put two past the opposing goalkeeper since early December.  Tough spot for the Andalusian side as they host Sporting Gijón and their stingy defense.  The Asturian club started the season strong but has slipped into the bottom half of the table.  They play well at home but struggle away, however, this match seems destined for the dreaded 0-0 scoreline.

Osasuna (10th) v. Tenerife (19th)

PICK: 1

Tenerife has not won away from the Canary Islands this season and that streak will continue this week.  Osasuna has a bounce in their step after earning an impressive 2-0 victory at Villarreal last week, leading to the sacking of Ernesto Valdano as Villarreal’s manager.  The Pamplona club can also focus all their energies on improving their league position, as they were eliminated from the Copa del Rey in the quarterfinals against Racing Santander.

Racing Santander (12th) v. Atlético Madrid (13th)

PICK: 2

Atlético Madrid fans certinaly must be losing their patience.  The slow start from los colchoneros led to a coaching change and every time they seem to turn things around they lay an egg.  Last week they lost at home to lowly Málaga only to soundly defeat Racing Santander 4-0 midweek in the Copa del Rey semifinals.  Who do they play this week?  None other than Racing Santander.  Both teams will likely rest key players ahead of next week’s second leg, which will also be in the northern coastal town of Santander.  Logical choice would be a draw but it is Atlético so maybe a win here and then a hilarious yet unsurprising 5-0 or 6-1 defeat to Racing in the Copa second leg.  I’ll amuse myself and pick Atlético to win again (I picked them last week as well).

Real Zaragoza (18th) v. Sevilla (4th)

PICK:  X

Real Zaragoza might be building up a bit of momentum.  They brought in several new players in the winter transfer window and beat Tenerife 3-1 away last week.  Meanwhile, Sevilla held court at home to Valencia last week, putting pressure on the team immediately above them in the standings.  Both teams could be on the verge of impressive form but Sevilla has disappointed repeatedly this season in both La Liga and my quiniela.  I think Zaragoza will be happy with a draw.

Athletic Bilbao (8th) v. Xerez (20th)

PICK: 1

If Bilbao wants any chance to play the Europa League again next year the must beat teams like Xerez at home.  There really is no shot for Xerez to avoid relegation so their players might as well enjoy the road trips while they’re here.

Málaga (15th) v. Deportivo La Coruña (6th)

PICK: X

Málaga is staking their claim as a club to watch in the second half of the season.  They had a run where they were undefeated in nine matches but only two of those nine were wins.  They traveled to Madrid the previous two weeks, with 2-0 results in both – one a loss to Real and the other a win against Atlético.  Deportivo, meanwhile, no longer has the burden of the Copa del Rey to distract their La Liga campaign and will be looking to get maximum points in southern Spain.  A draw is the most likely result.

Estudiantes (8th) v. San Lorenzo (13th)

PICK: 1

The current South American champions came within minutes of pulling off a huge upset in December in the Club World Cup final against Barcelona.  However, they have had a mixed start to the Clasura.  Estudiantes comprehensively beat Arsenal de Sarandí in the opening weekend but were routed 3-1 midweek in the La Plata derby against Gimnasia La Plata.  San Lorenzo have also split their two matches, with the most recent a 1-0 home loss to league leaders Godoy Cruz.  Estudiantes should wing, making it two losses on the trot for the club from Buenos Aires who have Wal-Mart as shirt sponsors.