seth from somewhere

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LAST WEEK: 6/10
SEASON: 34/60 (56.7%)

I wrote last week that Sevilla had busted my quiniela several times this season.  I also wrote that they would have an extra bounce in their step following their Copa victory over Barcelona.  I failed to take in to account Sevilla has let down at home several times this season.  Racing Santander are a quality away side and were led by teen sensation Sergio Canales.  Canales revealed earlier in the week Sevilla were interested in his services and he responded by scoring two goals in a 2-1 victory in Sevilla.  I picked wrongly in this fixture, leading to a 0-3 Saturday.  I rebounded nicely on Sunday, finishing 6-1, on the strength of a salty draw pick in the Málaga-Bilbao fixture.  Málaga is now unbeaten in ten matches, with their last loss coming to Valencia on November 1st.  However, only 2 of those matches have been Málaga victories and they continue to languish in the relegation zone.

This weekend’s slate is full of intriguing and important matches.  Real Madrid travels to the Basque Country and will face a hostile the hostile home support of Athletic Bilbao.  Barcelona and Sevilla play for the third week in a row while Valencia and Villarreal meet in a Valencian derby.  There are also a few matches between teams that are both in danger of relegation.

HOME WIN = 1; AWAY WIN = 2; DRAW = X

Osasuna (14th) v. Espanyol (13th)

PICK: X

Osasuna could be tired after their Copa match in mid-week while Espanyol is rested.  Both teams are hard to read and inconsistent.  In these cases I usually go with a draw but I suspect this will be one of the incorrect picks this week.

Athletic Bilbao (8th) v. Real Madrid (2nd)

PICK: X

This is a match I’d really like to watch just for the reaction of the home support.  There is no love loss between the sides, with Bilbao representing the Basques while Madrid are often lumped together with the the state and Spanish nationalism in a country that really is a loose federation of autonomous communities.  Los merengues have not lost at San Mamés since 2004 so the Bilbao faithful will be throwing all their support behind their team.  Barça only managed a draw here earlier in the season and I think Madrid will be happy with the same result.

Barcelona (1st) v. Sevilla (5th)

PICK: 1

It’s the third meeting in 11 days between the two after the two Copa del Rey quarterfinal matches in which Sevilla dumped the holders Barça out of the competition.  This marks the first time Barcelona has lost a competition under Pep Guardiola.  Los blaugranes did win the previous meeting in Sevilla 1-0 but their 2-1 loss at home in the first leg meant Sevilla moves on to the semifinals on a 2-2 aggregate score, winning on the weight of two away goals scored in Barcelona.  Guardiola will have the team re-focused this weekend as they look to increase their lead at the top.

Mallorca (6th) v. Deportivo La Coruña (4th)

PICK: 2

Mallorca still has not lost at home, turning their island home into a Mediterranean fortress.  They could climb back into the final Champions League place with a win and beneficial result in the Barça-Sevilla match.  Deportivo are not flashy and only sport a goal differential of +4, however, they know how to grind out results.  If there were any team other than the Big Two that could end Mallorca’s home streak it would have to be Deportivo.  Mallorca’s manager criticized the home support this week and I think that will backfire and lead to a win for Depor.  They will have their ears pinned back to become the first team to win in Mallorca.

Real Zaragoza (19th) v. Xerez (20th)

PICK: 1

Zaragoza made a significant signing this week, picking up Chilean Humberto Suazo on a loan with a view to a permanent deal.  Suazo was leading goal scorer in the South American World Cup qualification phase and has an impeccable goal scoring record in the Chilean and Mexican leagues and also at the international level.  Zaragoza desperately needs this win at home.  Meanwhile, this is the first match for Xerez since firing their manager.  Usually teams have a honeymoon period under a new manager but Xerez is so poor that the interim coach really has not chance of keeping Xerez in the first division.

Racing Santander (12th) v. Real Valladolid (16th)

PICK: 1

Racing has steadily climbed up the table after a slow start and has been lead by 18-year-old Sergio Canales (pictured above).  Valladolid has been floundering just above the relegation zone and a loss here will really put them in jeopardy.

Málaga (18th) v. Getafe (7th)

PICK: 1

Málaga suffered this first defeat in 11 matches this week in the Copa against the team they host this weekend.  The 5-1 thumping by Getafe means the Madrid-based side goes through while Málaga can concentrate on avoiding relegation.  They’ve drawn eight times in the league while Getafe has none.  Getafe has been in good form but I think their focus will be off after securing progression in the Copa del Rey and the fact they beat this same team 5-1 just a few days ago.

Almería (15th) v. Tenerife (17th)

PICK: X

This is a relegation six-pointer and these tend to be tense affairs.  Both teams score few and concede many.  Go with the draw.

Atlético Madrid (11th) v. Sporting Gijón (9th)

PICK: 1

What can you do with Atlético?  Their manager expects them to get worse and chastises them last week only to see them post a 4-0 away victory.  A 3-0 deficit in the Copa del Rey seemed insurmountable but a 5-1 triumph on Thursday sees los colchoneros through to the next round.  Are things finally turning around for Atlético?  Hard to say but they do host a Sporting side that has a hard time winning away from Asturias (1 away win out of 7).  Kun Agüero is back so any defensive lapses can be overcome in the attack.

Valencia (3rd) v. Villarreal (10th)

PICK: 1

I will probably be watching this local derby on ESPN360.com on Sunday afternoon.  Villarreal has had great success at the Mestella, with their last defeat in Valencia coming in 2004.  Couple that with Valencia’s mediocre home form this season and all signs point to at least a draw, perhaps even a win for the Yellow Submarine.  However, Villarreal isn’t necessarily torching the pitch away from home and Valencia needs a win to have any hope of competing for the league title this season.